Ontario, CA industrial market
The Ontario, CA industrial submarket (Inland Empire West) is in a post-peak recalibration phase. Direct vacancy has climbed to roughly 7.7% to 8.5% in early 2026, up sharply from sub-2% pandemic-era lows, as a wave of speculative construction delivered vacant space faster than demand could absorb it. Lease rates have fallen roughly 34% from their 2023 peak to around $0.99 to $1.08 per SF per month NNN, giving tenants meaningful negotiating leverage including free-rent concessions. Sale prices have pulled back to roughly $220 to $320 per SF depending on asset quality and size, with cap rates averaging in the mid-4% to low-5% range for stabilized product.
What's driving Industrial prices in Ontario
Industrial sale prices in Ontario/Inland Empire West pulled back roughly 15% from 2022 peak levels through mid-2026, with the average transaction price settling in the $259-$275/SF range during 2025, compared to highs above $300/SF in 2022.
- Rising vacancy (7.7%-8.5% direct in Q1 2026) driven by excess speculative deliveries is pushing lease rates and values down
- Lease rates down roughly 34% from 2023 peak to ~$0.99-$1.08 NNN/SF/month, eroding NOI and limiting upward pricing pressure on sales
- Scarcity of smaller sub-100,000 SF modern logistics product is keeping that size band more competitive than big-box
- Proximity to Ontario International Airport and I-10/I-15/SR-60 interchange continues to support long-term logistics demand and prevents deeper value declines
Market intelligence
Tracking this market since Jul 2026 · 15 comps · latest deal Jan 2026.
This quarter: 8 comps added to our corpus in Q3 2026. Trend medians use closed-deal dates from our growing comp corpus; automated estimates, not an appraisal.
Where these comps are
Momentum ContractingPins are geocoded from each comp's public address, so positions are approximate. Comps quoted at the submarket level aren't pinned. The shaded area is Ontario's municipal boundary, coloured to match the momentum read above.
Recent Industrial comps in Ontario, CA
| Address | Date | Type | Size (SF) | Price / Rate | $/SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ontario Distribution Center, Ontario, CA 91761 news | Q1 2025 | Sale | 174494 | $55,200,000 | $316 |
| Serrano Business Park, Ontario/San Bernardino County, CA news | Q1 2025 | Sale | 332725 | $86,000,000 | $259 |
| Ontario, CA (Orden Company acquisition, 257,000 SF industrial/office) news | Jan 2026 | Sale | 257000 | $57,000,000 | $222 |
| Ontario, CA - Airport Area Submarket Warehouse (274,312 SF building) listing | Mar 2026 | Lease | 185342 | $1.08/SF/month NNN ($12.96/SF/yr NNN) | $12.96 |
| Ontario, CA - Airport Area Submarket Warehouse (22,411 SF) listing | Mar 2025 | Lease | 22411 | $1.25/SF/month NNN ($15.00/SF/yr NNN) | $15.00 |
| 1540 E Acacia St - Thoroughbred Business Park, Ontario, CA 91761 listing | Mar 2025 | Lease | 82252 | $1.30/SF/month IG ($15.60/SF/yr) | $15.60 |
| Ontario, CA - Airport Area Submarket Warehouse (50,976 SF building) listing | Mar 2025 | Lease | 37722 | $1.15/SF/month NNN ($13.80/SF/yr NNN) | $13.80 |
| Median of 3 recent sales · $259/SF | $259 | ||||
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Figures are automated estimates derived from public listings, records, and brokerage announcements for Ontario, CA, not an appraisal or a broker opinion of value. Verify independently before relying on them. CompNinja connects owners with licensed local brokers; it is not a brokerage.